Group L gets its first real test of credentials when Croatia and Ghana open their World Cup 2026 accounts in a 2:30 AM IST kick-off that Indian viewers will have to set an alarm for. This is the first time these two nations have met at the tournament, which strips away the comfort of history and leaves both sides feeling each other out in real time. With England and Panama completing the quartet, every team in this group knows that the order of difficulty matters as much as the points themselves, and a meeting between the seeded Croatians and a Ghana side carrying genuine attacking talent is exactly the kind of fixture that can shape who finishes where. Croatia arrive as the group's top seed and the team most are expecting to advance comfortably, but the truth on a first matchday is that nobody has banked anything yet, and a slow start here could complicate a path that everyone assumes is straightforward.

The Croatian story, as it has been for the better part of a decade, still runs through Luka Modrić. At 198 caps and 29 international goals, he remains the metronome around whom this team is built, and even now there is no obvious replacement for the rhythm and game-control he brings in the middle of the park. The danger for any side facing Croatia is that they allow Modrić time on the ball, because the longer he dictates tempo, the more the match bends toward the patient, possession-heavy game his country prefers. Around him there is real firepower in the wide and forward areas. Ivan Perišić, with 154 caps and 38 goals, is the most prolific scorer in this Croatia group by the raw numbers, a relentless presence who has spent his career arriving in the box at the right moment, and Andrej Kramarić adds another 36 international goals from a forward who knows how to find space between defenders. That spine of experience is the foundation of Croatia's status as favourites, and it is why the model leans so firmly in their direction. What it cannot guarantee, of course, is that the goals come early or that the defence holds firm, and that uncertainty is where this preview gets interesting.

Ghana will not be intimidated by reputation, and they have the individuals to make Croatia uncomfortable. Jordan Ayew leads the line with 120 caps and 34 international goals, a forward whose tally tells you he has been doing this at the highest level for years rather than arriving as a one-tournament wonder. He is the kind of striker who thrives on exactly the sort of half-chances a stretched, still-settling defence tends to concede in an opening fixture. Behind him, Thomas Partey gives Ghana a genuine contest in the area where Croatia want to dominate. Partey's 57 caps and 15 goals understate his importance; his job here will be to disrupt Modrić's supply line and to break Croatia's rhythm before it builds, and if he wins that individual battle the whole complexion of the match changes. Abdul Rahman Baba brings 51 caps of defensive experience down the flank, and Ghana's hope is that a combination of Partey's bite in midfield and Ayew's movement up top is enough to turn this into the open, end-to-end game that suits an underdog far more than it suits a seeded favourite trying to control proceedings.

Because this is the opening round of group fixtures, the table sits at all zeros and nothing has been decided, which means the psychological weight falls differently on each side. Croatia are expected to win and will feel the pressure of that expectation; a draw would already be a small dent in their grip on top spot, and a defeat would be a genuine problem in a group that also contains England. Ghana, by contrast, have everything to gain. Sitting third in the seeding behind Croatia and England, they know that points taken off a top seed in the opening game can reframe their entire campaign and ease the burden of needing a result against England later. That dynamic — a favourite who must perform versus an opponent playing with house money — often produces exactly the cagey-then-open pattern that makes opening matches so unpredictable, and it is the reason the margin here is not as comfortable as the seedings might suggest.

Weighing it all up, the case for Croatia rests on quality and control, while the case for Ghana rests on the chaos a striker like Ayew and a midfielder like Partey can generate against a defence that has yet to play a competitive minute together at this tournament. Our model lands on Croatia to win by at least a goal, the CRO −1 line, with 71 percent confidence, and the reasoning is honest about the risk: goals look likely at both ends because neither defence has fully convinced yet. That is a tip backed firmly by Croatia's superior spine and the experience running through Modrić, Perišić and Kramarić, but it comes with the caveat that this could be a more open, higher-scoring affair than a one-sided handicap implies. Expect Croatia to edge it, expect Ghana to have their moments through Ayew, and if you are settling in for the 2:30 AM IST start, do not be surprised if both teams find the net before the favourite's class tells in the end.