There are few situations in a World Cup as combustible as the second round of group games when every team is on the same number of points, and that is precisely the knot Group G has tied itself into ahead of New Zealand against Belgium, which kicks off at 8:30 AM IST on 27 June. All four sides — Iran, New Zealand, Belgium and Egypt — opened their campaigns with a draw and sit on a single point apiece, separated only by the tie-breakers that nobody wants to be relying on come the final whistle of matchday three. New Zealand currently hold second place on the strength of goals scored, Belgium sit third, and a meeting that looked, on paper, like a procession for the Europeans has instead become a genuine pressure point for both. Win here and you take a commanding stride towards the knockout rounds; drop points and you hand the initiative to the other two and walk into your last fixture needing favours.

What makes this such a compelling watch is the gap between reputation and reality through ninety minutes of football each. Belgium arrived as one of the heavyweights of the section, and the names in their squad still command respect across world football. Axel Witsel anchors the midfield with 138 caps to his name, the kind of experience that tends to settle a team when a tournament starts to wobble. Ahead of him, Romelu Lukaku carries a frankly absurd international scoring record — 90 goals in 126 appearances — and remains the most obvious source of the goals Belgium will need to start manufacturing. And then there is Kevin De Bruyne, 119 caps and 37 goals, a player whose vision and delivery can unpick almost any defence on his day. On the evidence of the opener, though, that day did not arrive: Belgium were held 1-1 by Egypt, scoring once and conceding once, and finding themselves a place below a New Zealand side they would have expected to leapfrog comfortably.

New Zealand, for their part, will take real belief from how their tournament began. A 2-2 draw away to Iran is no small result, and the manner of it — twice finding the net rather than parking the bus and clinging on — tells you something about the intent in this group of players. Chris Wood is the focal point, and his 45 goals in 90 caps for his country, allied to the sharpness that has kept him relevant in the Premier League with Nottingham Forest, give the All Whites a centre-forward who can punish even a momentary lapse. Kosta Barbarouses offers further attacking craft from the flank, while Michael Boxall brings a hard core of experience at the back. That defence is the part worth scrutinising. New Zealand kept no clean sheet against Iran and shipped two, and across the wider tournament picture they have tended to set up narrow and compact, asking opponents to find a way around them rather than through them.

That defensive shape is exactly where this match could be decided, and it is the heart of our reading of the game. Belgium's most natural route to goal is pace running in behind — the kind of vertical threat that stretches a back line that wants to stay tight and central. If De Bruyne is given the time and the angles to thread passes into the channels, and Lukaku is the man arriving on the end of them, New Zealand's compactness can become a liability rather than a shield, because a deep, narrow block invites runners into the spaces either side of it. The All Whites showed against Iran that they can score, but they also showed they can be got at, and a Belgium attack of this calibre will fancy its chances of doing more than the single goal they managed against Egypt. The flip side, and the reason this is not a free hit for the favourites, is that New Zealand do not need to win to make the evening miserable for Belgium; a point would do enormous damage to the Belgian table position while keeping the All Whites in the box seat.

Still, when you weigh the quality differential, the table situation and the tactical match-up together, the case builds for Belgium not just to win but to win with a degree of comfort once they find their rhythm. They have far too much in the final third to keep misfiring, and a side carrying the weight of expectation tends to throw everything forward when a tournament threatens to slip away after one underwhelming result — which is exactly the predicament Belgium find themselves in. Against a New Zealand back line that has already conceded twice and is built to absorb rather than dominate, the gaps should come. That is why our model lands on Belgium -1.5, a tip we hold at 78% confidence: the expectation is not a nervy one-goal win but a Belgian performance that finally clicks, with their pace in behind and De Bruyne's supply line proving the difference by a margin of two or more. New Zealand have earned respect with their start and Chris Wood means they can never be written off entirely, but the smart read is that Belgium's class tells, and tells clearly, on a morning when both teams know a draw helps neither of them as much as it might first appear.