Two Steps Back, One Step Forward: Netherlands and Japan Trade Blows in a Draw That Suits Sweden
There is a particular kind of frustration reserved for the team that has to come from behind twice and still walks off with only a point, and on the evidence of the scoreline alone, the Netherlands experienced exactly that in their World Cup opener against Japan. Two-two. A goal conceded, an equaliser, another goal conceded, another equaliser, and then, with the match seemingly drifting towards a draw the Dutch could at least live with, Daichi Kamada struck in the 88th minute to drag Japan level for a second time and snatch back a share of the spoils that the Netherlands must have believed, at 2-1, was theirs to keep. The timing of that final goal is the whole story here. Two minutes from the end of normal time, with the Oranje presumably managing the game and Japan throwing bodies forward, the most experienced head on the pitch found the decisive moment. For a Dutch side that fancied itself to dominate this group, an opening-night 2-2 is not a disaster, but it is a long way from the statement they will have wanted to make.
Run the goal timings back and you get a contest that swung on its hinges in the second half. The Netherlands did not score until the 50th minute, which tells you the first half passed without either side breaking the deadlock and that the game opened up after the interval rather than before it. When the breakthrough came it arrived through the unlikeliest of sources in one sense and the most reliable in another: Virgil van Dijk, the Liverpool captain, 34 years old now and on his 92nd cap, heading or otherwise forcing the ball home for his 12th international goal. Van Dijk is not a striker, but a defender with a dozen goals for his country across more than nine years of service is precisely the sort of player who turns up in a moment like this, and that he was the one to put the Netherlands ahead speaks to the experience this team can call upon when a match needs settling. Japan answered quickly. Within seven minutes, Tatsuhiro Nakamura had levelled in the 57th — the Reims midfielder, 25 years old and already on ten goals from just 25 caps, a striking rate of return for a man in the middle of the park and a reminder that Japan's threat does not begin and end with their forwards.
That 2-1 to the Netherlands followed in the 64th, and it is the most intriguing goal of the four for what it represents. Crysencio Summerville, the West Ham forward, scored on what was only his second cap for the senior national side, and it was the first international goal of his career. There is something to be drawn from that. The Dutch have long been a production line of attacking talent, and to see a relative newcomer step into a World Cup and mark his second appearance with a goal is the kind of detail that hints at strength in depth rather than reliance on the established names. For a 24-year-old to announce himself on this stage is no small thing, and if the Netherlands are to go deep in this tournament, it will be because players like Summerville convert these early chances into a settled role. For now, his goal looked like it would be the winner. It was not.
The man who ensured it was not is the one whose record demanded respect from the outset. Kamada, 29, of Crystal Palace, has 49 caps and 12 international goals to his name, and his equaliser two minutes from time was the intervention of a player who has spent a career arriving in the right place at the right moment. Japan have built their modern identity on exactly this: technically secure, relentless, and unwilling to accept that a match is lost until the final whistle. To concede twice to a side of the Netherlands' pedigree and still find a way to leave with a point is the mark of a team that trusts its process, and the fact that both their goals came from midfielders — Nakamura and Kamada, ten and twelve international goals respectively — underlines how their goal threat is distributed through the team rather than concentrated in one or two names. The Netherlands, by contrast, scored through a centre-back and a debutant-ish forward, which is a different kind of strength but one that, on this night, was not quite enough to hold a lead.
What does it all mean for Group F? The honest answer is that the Netherlands and Japan have left themselves with work to do, and the chief beneficiary of their stalemate is not in this fixture at all. Sweden sit top of the group on three points with a goal difference of plus four, having opened their campaign in emphatic fashion, and that gap matters at this early stage because it gives the Swedes a cushion that the two sides who drew here simply do not have. Japan sit second on a single point, ahead of the Netherlands in third only by virtue of the alphabet or the finest of tie-breaks — both have a point, both have a goal difference of zero, both scored twice and conceded twice. Tunisia prop up the table on zero after their own opening defeat. In a four-team group where two are likely to progress, a drawn first match keeps everything alive but settles nothing, and for the Netherlands in particular, having to share points with a direct rival while Sweden bank a comfortable win is the least convenient outcome short of an actual defeat.
The flip side, and the reason Japan will be the marginally happier of the two camps, is the manner of their point. There is a meaningful psychological difference between drawing a game you led and drawing a game you twice trailed. The Netherlands will reflect on a lead surrendered with the finish line in sight; Japan will travel onward knowing they refused to be beaten by one of the group's heavyweights even when the scoreboard told them they should be. That kind of result has a way of carrying forward into a campaign, and it arrives at a useful time for the Japanese, because their schedule now eases. Japan's next assignment is a trip to face Tunisia, the side currently bottom of the group, in a fixture that kicks off at 9:30 AM IST on 21 June. For Indian viewers, that is a rare daytime World Cup slot rather than the usual overnight commitment, and on paper it is the match in which Japan should look to convert resilience into a return of points. Beat Tunisia and that single point banked against the Netherlands suddenly looks like the platform for qualification rather than a missed opportunity.
The Netherlands face a sterner immediate test, and a more revealing one. Their second group game pits them against Sweden, the group leaders, on 20 June at 10:30 PM IST — a far more sociable kick-off for the Indian audience and, conveniently, one of the genuine pivot points of the entire group. Having dropped two points on the opening night, the Dutch can ill afford to lose ground to the side already setting the pace, and a meeting with Sweden so early carries the weight of a near-must-win. Win it and the Netherlands are right back in control of their own destiny with the alphabetised tie-break suddenly an irrelevance; lose it and they are staring at a final-round trip to Tunisia, on 26 June at 4:30 AM IST, with their qualification potentially hanging on results elsewhere. That is the corner a 2-2 draw can quietly back you into — not catastrophic, but unforgiving of any further slips.
Where our model got it wrong
Our projection went into this one favouring the Netherlands to win by a clear margin, with the tip set at NED −1 and a confidence rating of 72 — among the firmer calls of the round. The reasoning leaned on Japan's goalkeeper being their busiest performer, the expectation being that the Dutch would generate enough pressure to win comfortably while Japan spent the evening defending. That read did not survive contact with the actual match. Far from being pinned back and reliant on their goalkeeper, Japan found the net twice through their midfield and matched the Netherlands blow for blow, and the −1 line was beaten not by a narrow Dutch win but by a draw in which Japan arguably finished the stronger, given the lateness of their leveller. It is a miss, and worth owning as one. The lesson the result offers is the one Japan have been teaching opponents for years now: treating them as a side that defends and hopes is a category error. They carry goals through the spine of the team, and a model that priced them as primarily a containment outfit underrated the threat that Nakamura and Kamada, with 22 international goals between them, plainly represent.
For all the frustration the Netherlands will feel, there are encouraging threads to pull on. Van Dijk's continued goal threat from set situations and Summerville's instant impact on limited senior experience are exactly the ingredients a deep-running tournament side wants, and two goals against a Japan team that will likely trouble most opponents in this group is hardly a damning attacking return. The defensive lapses that cost them control twice are the more pressing concern, and the timing of the second concession — that 88th-minute sucker punch — will sting in the review. Japan, meanwhile, leave with their belief intact and a kinder fixture next, the sense growing that this is a group with a clear leader in Sweden and a genuine scrap for the second qualifying place behind them. Both these sides remain very much in that scrap. The Netherlands now must answer the group's pacesetters directly under the lights on 20 June, while Japan look to press home their advantage in daylight a day later. On a night that promised a Dutch statement and delivered a shared one, it is Sweden, watching from the top, who will have enjoyed the 2-2 most of all.
